This is an incredibly important year as 83 countries around the globe head to the polls. This represents 4 billion people, approximately 50% of the global population. As speculation dominates the news about the potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential elections, one thing seems increasingly clear to me: former President Donald Trump faces significant challenges in his bid for a return to the White House. While political results can shift dramatically, several key factors indicate that Trump’s path to victory may be more difficult than celebrated by recent polls and news. Let’s dig deeper and look into the data and why Trump is unlikely to secure another term in office.
- US Economic Performance: America’s economic indicators are robust and continue to outperform expectations. Unemployment rates are at a historic low, marking a 40-year record. This strong job market reflects positively on the current administration and may sway voters to seek continuity rather than change.
- Financial Performance: Wall Street is showing its best results ever with the S&P 500 crossing 5000 for the first time ever in intraday trading, the latest milestone for a U.S. stock market powered by a resilient economy and subsiding inflation. Part of these records are due to big Tech stocks carrying record high performance, led by Meta, and Amazon. This financial strength is a boon for workers and keeps the risk of a recession low. However, it could delay interest rate cuts by keeping some upward pressure on inflation.
- US Energy Leadership: The United States has emerged as a global leader in energy production (with over 13 million barrels of oil per day), boasting the title of the largest oil producer and a significant investor in renewable energy initiatives. This helps keep gas prices low, while making the US a leader in the global green-growth transition. This dual focus on traditional and sustainable energy sources aligns with evolving global priorities (deglobalization being one) and positions the nation for long-term economic growth and stability.
- Stable Financial Environment: With decreasing borrowing costs and inflation rates (even though we may have to wait until June for an interest rate cut by the Central Bank), the 11 consecutive interest rate hikes performed in 2022-2023 are paying off as capital becomes more affordable and people’s purchasing power increases. With this, more people are buying homes, which is the ultimate American dream. By the time of the elections, these trends are projected to continue and will increase the prosperity of most Americans, particularly those in vulnerable economic conditions, providing a sense of security and well-being among the electorate.
- Immigration Dynamics: President Trump will use the immigration and security card aggressively. No doubt about it, and he is right, the numbers are very high. Initial data suggest that nearly 1.2 million immigrants became lawful permanent residents in the US in 2023. This number is high because countries around the world are in trouble, and America’s overall economy remains strong, making it the leading country of opportunity for people worldwide, attracting immigrants from all over the world who seek a better future. This influx of talent and ambition contributes to the nation’s vitality and economic growth. The appeal of the United States as a land of opportunity underscores the resilience of its democratic values and may influence voters’ perceptions of the current administration’s effectiveness in managing immigration policies. To keep it simple, guys, don’t forget that it is thanks to immigrants that our agriculture, service, manufacturing, and transport costs stay low and allow us a more affordable living. Expect the Biden administration to get tougher in the coming months to ensure that immigration does not exacerbate security and the rule of law.
- Rising Wages for All: Across all socioeconomic strata, wages are increasing or have increased, signaling a tangible improvement in living standards for most Americans. As the nation emerges from the tumultuous aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s conflict energy shocks, and supply chain disruption, we would witness continuous economic expansion, which will benefit Americans. This upward trajectory in wages strengthens public confidence in the administration’s ability to deliver tangible economic benefits.
In conclusion, while people around the globe have gone through shock after shock since 2000, and most Americans have suffered, my analysis of current economic data and long-term societal trends suggests that Donald Trump faces tough obstacles in his bid for re-election in 2024. The US’s robust economic performance, energy leadership, stable financial environment, immigration dynamics, and rising wages collectively contribute to progress and stability under the current administration’s leadership. As voters weigh their options, these factors will tip the scales in favor of continuity rather than a return to a volatile Trump.
The doom and gloom narrative will continue throughout 2024 as most people around the world have experienced personal, economic, and societal shocks since 2020. Most people are still on the mend, and the recovery is not over, but let’s not forget that we have avoided a tough recession, and that once again, we are one of the fastest-growing largest economies in the world.